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Unless new significant geopolitical or economic events occur, the hryvnia will end July relatively stable.During July 20–24, the official hryvnia exchange rate against the dollar showed a smooth and continuous weakening. While at the beginning of the week the National Bank set the rate at UAH 44.6676/$1, by July 24 it had increased to UAH 44.8110/$1. In total, over five days, the dollar appreciated by 14.34 kopecks, or approximately 0.3%, indicating a controlled change in the rate without sharp fluctuations.This was reported by Hanna Zolotykh, a board member and director of the treasury operations department at Unex Bank.“The hryvnia ended the week with a moderate weakening,” she noted.Don’t risk your savings, choose only reliable deposits. The catalog from Finance.ua will always help you with this. It is available at the link.This trend can be characterized as a moderate, gradual adjustment of the official rate. The National Bank continued to maintain a balance between the supply and demand of foreign currency, preventing sharp rate surges. The daily increase in the official rate was insignificant, within 2–5 kopecks, which is a sign of manageable volatility.
Official and Cash Exchange Rates
The National Bank’s rates were as follows:
- July 20 – UAH 44.6676/$1;
- July 21 – UAH 44.7030/$1;
- July 22 – UAH 44.7503/$1;
- July 23 – UAH 44.7711/$1;
- July 24 – UAH 44.8110/$1.
The cash currency market demonstrated a moderate strengthening of the hryvnia and a gradual increase in the dollar exchange rate over the past week. Starting on Monday in the range of UAH 44.38–44.88/$1, on Tuesday the quotes shifted slightly upward to UAH 44.41–44.91/$1. On Wednesday and Thursday, the rates rose again to UAH 44.44–44.93/$1 and UAH 44.48–44.99/$1, respectively. On Friday, they were UAH 44.49–45.00/$1, reaching their highest values for the week.From July 20–24, the interbank currency market showed a moderately upward trend in the dollar exchange rate without sharp fluctuations. Trading occurred within narrow intraday ranges, indicating a relatively balanced supply and demand for currency, while the rate gradually shifted upwards.Your ad space here
Interbank Rate
Throughout the week, the dollar appreciated from UAH 44.72/$1 at the opening on Monday to UAH 44.81/$1 at the close of trading on Friday. Most indicative was that each subsequent trading day closed at a level close to or slightly higher than the previous one: after UAH 44.74/$1 on Monday, the market closed at UAH 44.76/$1 on Tuesday, UAH 44.79/$1 on Wednesday, UAH 44.83/$1 on Thursday, and UAH 44.81/$1 on Friday. This trend indicates a controlled weakening of the hryvnia.As of July 20–24, the National Bank maintained a strong presence in the interbank currency market, selling $1.014 billion. Although the net volume of currency interventions was slightly lower than the previous week ($1.074 billion), the difference was insignificant, about 5.6%, indicating a persistently high demand for foreign currency and the need for continued market balance support from the regulator.Read also
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In fact, for the second consecutive week, the volume of interventions exceeded $1 billion, indicating the National Bank’s active use of foreign exchange reserves to smooth out exchange rate fluctuations and prevent a sharper weakening of the hryvnia. Despite a slight reduction in interventions, their level remains sufficiently high, suggesting that the imbalance between supply and demand for currency in the interbank market still persists, although it is not intensifying.Overall, the dynamics in the second half of July indicated a continuation of the gradual trend of hryvnia weakening, driven by the seasonal increase in demand for currency from importers, budget expenditures, and the persistent significant deficit of currency in the interbank market. At the same time, the absence of sharp exchange rate fluctuations confirms that the currency market remained controlled, and the National Bank continued to have sufficient tools to smooth out imbalances.
Forecast for the Week
During the last week of July, Ukraine’s currency market will most likely maintain relative stability, although volatility may increase compared to mid-month. However, there are currently no grounds for sharp devaluation, as the National Bank continues to adhere to a regime of managed flexibility and possesses an adequate range of tools to smooth out imbalances in the interbank market.The key factor remains the NBU’s policy. The regulator will continue to offset the structural currency deficit through interventions, preventing the market from forming sharp rate surges even with high demand for dollars. Therefore, current fluctuations resemble controlled movements within a defined corridor. As long as international financial aid volumes remain sufficient and foreign exchange reserves allow for active participation in the interbank market, the risk of a sharp weakening of the hryvnia remains low.Read also
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External conditions are an additional influencing factor. If global markets continue to react to geopolitical tensions with rising oil prices, this will gradually increase the currency needs of Ukrainian energy importers. However, this effect usually manifests with a certain time lag and is unlikely to be decisive during the last week of July. The internal balance of currency supply and demand and the NBU’s readiness to support the market remain significantly more important.The psychological factor should also be considered. The mark of UAH 45 per dollar continues to serve as a benchmark for market participants. Even if the official exchange rate temporarily approaches this level, it is unlikely to signify the beginning of a large-scale devaluation. Most likely, the regulator will not allow the exchange rate to firmly settle significantly above this level without significant fundamental reasons.Unless new significant geopolitical or economic events occur, the hryvnia will end July relatively stable.According to: Finance.ua# Currency# Exchange Rate# Hryvnia Rate# Dollar Rate# Cash Rate# Interbank# Currency Market# Currency OperationsYour ad space here “`