“>
Photo: SuperAgronom.com
FAS USDA has revised its forecast for Ukrainian grain exports for the 2026/27 marketing year. The most significant reductions are in the estimated exports of corn and wheat, attributed to Russian attacks on port infrastructure and civilian vessels in the Black Sea. This is reported by Latifundist.com, citing the August USDA report.
FAS USDA has most substantially revised the forecast for corn exports. While the official USDA projection anticipated exports of 23 million tons, the FAS Kyiv estimate stands at only 14 million tons, representing a decrease of 9 million tons, or nearly 39%.
The export forecast for wheat has also been lowered – from 14.5 million tons to 10.8 million tons, a reduction of 3.7 million tons (25.5%).
Conversely, the export forecast for barley has seen a slight increase – from 2.4 million tons to 2.5 million tons.
Read also: Sowing Campaign 2026: How the Structure of Ukrainian Fields Has Changed and What It Means for the Agro-Sector
FAS USDA attributes the revised forecasts to the deteriorating security situation in the Black Sea. The report notes that Russia has intensified attacks on civilian vessels and Ukraine’s port infrastructure. Although the maritime corridor is not officially closed, shipowners are increasingly refusing to enter the ports of Greater Odesa due to high risks, leading to a tonnage deficit.
According to FAS Kyiv’s assessment, under these conditions, the average monthly grain exports for the 2026/27 marketing year are projected to be 2.3 million tons, which is below the average figure for the first half of 2026. The agency emphasizes, however, that the forecast may fluctuate depending on the security situation in the Black Sea and the development of land and river logistics.
Alla Gusarova, SuperAgronom.com
Be the first to get the latest agronomic news from Ukraine on our Facebook page, Telegram, and subscribe to SuperAgronom’s Instagram.